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The premium on shares of PSLV, Sprott’s Physical Silver Trust, has remained under 5%, which is exceptionally negative sentiment for silver prices. Below, we have provided the current premium over NAV for the closing prices on PSLV (Real Time Chart) for Thursday, 4/19/2012, followed by a table reflecting the premium range and number of days at each level, since the fund’s inception.

Source: Sprott Physical Silver Trust

PMBull frequently cites the PSLV Premium when it is dipping lower for a reason. Historically, the premium investors paid for PSLV has been as high as 35% and as low as 2%. The premium highs have been achieved at market tops and the premium lows at market bottoms in silver. Here is a table showing the range of premiums and the number of days PSLV has traded at that premium, since fund inception: Continue reading →

Where is silver headed next in 2012? We can forecast silver price targets with three weekly chart patterns that are in development.

Even if you aren’t into technical analysis, the charts are worth a look. Physical silver bullion buyers and long-term silver investors may still take comfort from these chart patterns because they present a long-term view and potential target that serves as context for the day-to-day swings as we move forward towards Q3 2012. Or should we say QE 2012?

This weekly silver chart may support predictions by those silver gurus that primarily take a fundamental view of silver prices. Is now a good time to buy silver? Our bias is shown, but the patterns aren’t confirmed. We are at a critical level right now.

Past, Present and Future Patterns May Forecast 2012 Silver Price Targets

Consider this post a Silver Carol, with apologies to Dickens. Tonight, we are to be visited by the ghosts of Silver Past, Present and Future. These ghosts may give us insight into where the price will be in 2012. We can conditionally forecast silver’s price, depending on how these patterns play out, and perhaps see the source of many seemingly random predictions for the price of silver.

One of our silver chart patterns has already completed, but still provides value because it has not yet reached its price target. Another pattern is on the verge of completion. We need a breakout to the upside and subsequent confirmation. Action in silver now is critical. Our final pattern is a much larger one and has been developing in silver for many months. It could take many to play out, so we should be careful in citing it as a bullish argument at the present time.

For this exercise, we are going to use the iShares Silver Trust ETF (Symbol: SLV). I know, you might prefer to look at Sprott’s Physical Silver Trust (Symbol: PSLV), Spot Silver or for the purists who hold nothing but Physical Silver, a weekly plot of prices for a 10 oz. silver bullion bar. SLV is convenient for this exercise and to date, it continues to trade inline with silver prices. So agree or disagree with the trading vehicle used here, but consider the patterns and then make your silver purchase or trading decisions with your own poison of choice.

It has been 34 trading days since silver prices peaked on February 29th. To some, it has felt like an eternity. Yet the price action in silver over the past several weeks remains constructive and we can see this by stepping back a bit and looking at the weekly SLV chart.

Here are the three patterns: Continue reading →